Dr. Rajan Kumar, an associate professor at the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, says no.
“Pakistan has never been a traditional partner of Russia, whether during the Soviet era or after its collapse,” he explains. He points out that during the time of British India, hostility with the Tsar was well known. Despite this history, Putin is now calling them a historic partner.
According to Dr. Kumar, India has made it clear to Russia that a closer relationship with Pakistan will impact their own ties. Pakistan, however, has consistently tried to build a relationship with Russia through China. Both Pakistan and Russia are key partners for China. Pakistan’s strategy is to disrupt the balance of power in the region, while India has managed to keep Pakistan in check by maintaining good relations with Russia. India’s biggest concern is a potential alliance between Pakistan, Russia, and China. Russia and China are already close.
Dr. Kumar isn’t the only one who believes this. Ashley J. Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, agrees. He says India cannot fully join the U.S. camp because of the continental threats it faces. If China, Russia, and Pakistan were to join forces, it would reignite the “Great Game” that was discussed in British India. India will not allow this to happen.
When war broke out between India and Pakistan in 1965, Russia’s stance was very balanced. The agreement that Russia brokered in Tashkent was seen as unfavorable to India. This led Pakistan to believe that Russia was not entirely against it.
In 1991, Pakistan proposed a “South Asia Nuclear-Free Zone” at the United Nations, which India opposed. India’s position was that the proposal was meaningless unless it also included China. This move by Pakistan was widely seen as an attempt to curb India’s nuclear program, but the Soviet Union supported Pakistan’s proposal.
Putin Has Never Visited Pakistan
The United States is not happy with India’s close friendship with Russia, but India has refused to give in to U.S. demands. Many analysts believe that if the U.S. pressures India to break ties with Russia, it would only strengthen Putin’s position.
Indrani Bagchi, CEO of the Ananta Centre, warned about this when the U.S. threatened to raise tariffs against India. She wrote that it was “very dangerous.” She noted that the West believes India is special to Russia and should be punished to please Putin. But Putin does not back down from his own interests and doesn’t care if India is harmed. In such a situation, only India would suffer.
Tanvi Madan also wrote that if Donald Trump were to pressure India, Putin would benefit. If India-U.S. relations sour, there would be a demand in India to strengthen ties with Russia. In this scenario, India would appear more willing to enter into agreements with China.
According to Madan, some people in India are considering a return to “strategic autonomy” or moving closer to China. However, she believes Trump doesn’t think this way about India and that he doesn’t currently prioritize competition with China.
Despite all this, Dr. Rajan Kumar believes that Putin understands India’s concerns about Pakistan. This is supported by the fact that Putin, who has been in power for 25 years, has never visited Pakistan. No Russian president has ever visited Pakistan, even during the Soviet era. The first high-level Russian visit was made by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov on April 11, 2007, 16 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
India is the only country in South Asia that Putin visits. On March 17, 2016, then-Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Alexey Dedov stated at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad that a visit “should not be a mere formality; there should be a strong reason for the visit. If there is a strong reason, the visit will happen. Therefore, preparation and agreements are necessary.”