Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has issued a strong warning that the country cannot indefinitely tolerate militant violence linked to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Speaking on Saturday, he said that if dialogue does not succeed, Pakistan faces the possibility of open war with Afghanistan.
Experts believe this is not an isolated statement but reflects the broader stance of Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership. Researcher Abdul Sayeed explained that Islamabad has long made it clear that if cross-border attacks continue, air strikes inside Afghanistan remain an option. He recalled that Army Chief General Hafiz Asim Munir had delivered a similar warning in 2023 after a deadly assault by the Tehreek-e-Jihad-e-Pakistan.
Analysts point out that the Afghan Taliban’s hesitation to act against the TTP is rooted in shared ideology and history. Afghan political affairs researcher William Mele told the BBC that the Taliban leadership views the TTP as an ideological ally, with ties dating back to the 1980s and 1990s. This bond, she noted, makes it difficult for the Taliban to confront the group directly.
Other experts highlight additional complications. Wenda Fulbab Brown of the Brookings Institution observed that the Haqqani network, a powerful faction within the Taliban, has operational links with the TTP. She warned that a crackdown could push the TTP closer to the Islamic State group, creating new risks for the region.
Tensions are also shaped by past grievances. The Taliban’s southern leadership in Kandahar has expressed resentment over Pakistan’s role in the detention of Mullah Baradar and the killing of Mullah Mansour in a U.S. drone strike.
Some observers argue that the Taliban government views the TTP’s activities as Pakistan’s internal matter and prefers not to create new enemies. Unlike the Islamic State, the TTP has never directly challenged the Taliban’s interim government in Kabul.
Analysts conclude that as long as the TTP does not threaten the Taliban’s authority, Kabul is unlikely to take decisive action. Instead, the Afghan Taliban continue to urge Pakistan to resolve its disputes with the group through dialogue rather than force.